Samir’s Selection 07/21/2016 (a.m.)
Four scenarios: how Brexit process could unfold >>>
… four possible scenarios, viewed through the perspective of the process rather than the final outcome. They represent four very different paths: a hostile divorce, a clean break, an amicable transition and a change of heart, in which Brexit is averted.
The British model is, to some extent, the sum of all the cold calculations, surprise twists and political tantrums over that journey. “The real question is not about the model in the end,” said Pierre Vimont, a seasoned French diplomat who previously led the EU diplomatic service. “It is how the negotiation will go and whether it will turn nasty or not.”
Metropolitan myths that led to Brexit >>>
The Eurosceptic myths that fuelled hostility to the EU are obvious enough. We were told that the NHS was being destroyed by immigration, when more than a third of UK-based doctors qualified overseas. We were told that the EU is a fat bureaucracy, when it employs about as many people as Derbyshire County Council. And we were told that the UK was being buried in red tape, when the OECD reckons it is one of the least regulated economies in the developed world…
Yet the metropolitan elite that voted so enthusiastically to remain cherishes its own myths, and those myths did plenty to undermine the cause of remaining in the EU.
Here are four tenets of the trendy centre-left of British politics: first, soaring inequality means that ordinary people haven’t shared in the benefits of economic growth; second, rich people and big companies don’t pay taxes; third, gross domestic product (GDP) is a statistic that misses what really counts; and finally, economists are reliably wrong.
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